Column: A True Fall Classic

The World Series is nicknamed “The Fall Classic,” but let’s be honest–it doesn’t always live up to that “classic” billing. Many Series over the years have ended in four or five games, with few enduring moments.

But this year, as the Houston Astros and Los Angeles Dodgers prepare for a winner-take-all Game 7 tonight (8:20 p.m. ET, FOX), the World Series has lived up to the “Fall Classic” label, unfolding as one of the greatest World Series ever played. And just think, there’s a game still to be played, and it’s a Game 7–baseball at its best.

From the time the matchup was set, the 113th World Series was destined for greatness, with two exceptional teams meeting for baseball’s greatest prize–the Astros and Dodgers are the first set of 100-plus-win teams to meet in the World Series since 1970.

Yet as good as this Series looked on paper, it has been even better on the field. With each team playing at an incredibly high level, each game has been close (even the 6-2 Dodgers win in Game 4 was 1-1 entering the ninth), intense and entertaining. The Series has had everything, with pitcher’s duels in Games 1 and 6, an all-out offensive slugfest in the Game 5 instant classic, and a Game 2 that had both extremes in the same game.

A great week of baseball will now conclude with the 38th winner-take-all game in World Series history, as the Astros and Dodgers become the first 100-win teams to meet in a Game 7 since Herbert Hoover was president in 1931.

Tonight’s game marks the first time back-to-back World Series have reached a Game 7 since 2001 and 2002. But while last year’s epic Game 7 between the Cubs and Indians will be a tough act to follow, if there’s a World Series that can produce a comparable classic, it’s this one. It has, after all, already produced six phenomenal contests.

So as the Astros and Dodgers play the final baseball game of the year tonight, bringing this breathtaking World Series to a decisive climax, savor it. We’re watching the determining game of a true “Fall Classic.”

 

 

113th World Series

Game 1
Los Angeles 3, Houston 1
W: Kershaw, L: Keuchel, S: Jansen
Dodgers lead Series 1-0

Game 2
Houston 7, Los Angeles 6, 11 innings
W: Devenski, L: McCarthy
Series tied 1-1

Game 3
Houston 5, Los Angeles 3
W: McCullers, L: Darvish, S: Peacock
Astros lead Series 2-1

Game 4
Los Angeles 6, Houston 2
W: Watson, L: Giles
Series tied 2-2

Game 5
Houston 13, Los Angeles 12, 10 innings
W: Musgrove, L: Jansen
Astros lead 3-2

Game 6
Los Angeles 3, Houston 1
W: Watson (2), L: Verlander, S: Jansen (2)
Series tied 3-3

Game 7
Houston at Los Angeles
Tonight, 8:20 p.m. ET, FOX

 

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Trends of a World Series Champion, Volume III

For the last two Octobers, I’ve looked at the trends of past World Series champions, and how each team in that year’s MLB postseason field compared to the trends that a typical World Series-winning team fits.

(2015: Trends of a World Series Champion)
(2016: Trends of a World Series Champion, Revisited)

As we enter the 2017 postseason, starting with the AL Wild Card game tonight, let’s look at the 10 teams in this year’s postseason and how they stack up to the trends of a World Series champion.

 

Trend:  Team batting average of .250 or better
Within the trend:  Astros (.282), Rockies (.273), Nationals (.266), Indians (.263), Yankees (.262), Twins (.260), Red Sox (.258), Cubs (.255), Diamondbacks (.254)
Outside the trend:  Dodgers (.249)

Trend:  Number of offensive starters hitting .290 or better (min. 50 games)
Within the trend:  Astros (5), Rockies (5), Nationals (4), Indians (3), Diamondbacks (3), Dodgers (2), Cubs (2), Red Sox (2), Twins (2)
Outside the trend:  Yankees (1)

Trend:  Team ERA of 4.00 or better
Within the trend:  Indians (3.30), Dodgers (3.38), Diamondbacks (3.66), Red Sox (3.70), Yankees (3.72), Nationals (3.88), Cubs (3.95)
Outside the trend:  Astros (4.12), Rockies (4.51), Twins (4.57)

Trend:  Starting rotation ERA of 4.25 or better
Within the trend:  Dodgers (3.39), Indians (3.52), Diamondbacks (3.61), Nationals (3.63), Yankees (3.98), Astros (4.03), Cubs (4.05), Red Sox (4.06)
Outside the trend:  Rockies (4.59), Twins (4.73)

Trend:  Bullpen ERA of 3.92 or better
Within the trend:  Indians (2.89), Red Sox (3.15), Dodgers (3.38), Yankees (3.44), Diamondbacks (3.78), Cubs (3.80)
Outside the trend:  Astros (4.27), Rockies (4.40), Twins (4.40), Nationals (4.41)

Trend:  Home winning percentage of .550 or better
Within the trend:  Dodgers (.704), Diamondbacks (.642), Yankees (.630), Indians (.605), Astros (.593), Cubs (.593), Red Sox (.593), Nationals (.580), Rockies (.568)
Outside the trend:  Twins (.506)

Trend:  Away winning percentage of .520 or better
Within the trend:  Indians (.654), Astros (.654), Nationals (.617), Dodgers (.580), Red Sox (.556), Cubs (.543), Twins (.543)
Outside the trend:  Diamondbacks (.506), Rockies (.506), Twins (.494)

Trend:  Win percentage after Sept. 1 of .500 or better
Within the trend:  Indians (.867), Astros (.724), Yankees (.690), Cubs (.655), Red Sox (.607), Diamondbacks (.607), Nationals (.552), Rockies (.517), Twins (.517)
Outside the trend:  Dodgers (.433)

Trend:  Win percentage in one-run games
Within the trend:  Cubs (.605), Rockies (.600), Astros (.594), Nationals (.588), Indians (.571), Dodgers (.568), Diamondbacks (.558), Red Sox (.537)
Outside the trend:  Twins (.455), Yankees (.409)

Trend:  Baseball-Reference.com Simple Rating System of 0.2 or better
Within the trend:  Indians (1.5), Yankees (1.3), Astros (1.2), Dodgers (0.9), Red Sox (0.8), Diamondbacks (0.8), Nationals (0.6), Cubs (0.6), Rockies (0.3), Twins (0.2)
Outside the trend:  none

 

Here are how many trends of a World Series champion each playoff team fit:

Indians 10
Cubs 10
Red Sox 10
Nationals 9
Diamondbacks 9
Dodgers 8
Astros 8
Yankees 7
Rockies 6
Twins 5

By this analysis, the Indians, Cubs and Red Sox would be World Series co-favorites, and each certainly have a very strong team with a great chance at hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy.

But only eight of the 22 World Series winners in the Wild Card era (since 1995) have fit all 10 criteria, so those who have missed in a category or two still have a great statistical shot at winning the World Series.

18 of the last 22 champions have fit eight or more criteria, and 21 of those 22 have fit at least seven (the 2006 Cardinals, with just three, are the huge outlier.)

More recently, the 10 champions since that 2006 Cardinals team have all fit eight or more criteria, and four of the last seven have fit all 10.

That said, seven of the 10 playoff teams, including all six that have already advanced to the League Division Series, fit eight or more criteria and fit the trend to win the World Series.

Though the shoe fits some better than others, the race is absolutely wide open as the playoffs begin.

 

 

Using these trends (and homefield to break ties where applicable), here is how the playoffs would play out–with the very World Series matchup and outcome I predicted in March:

AL Wild Card: Yankees def. Twins
NL Wild Card: Diamondbacks def. Rockies
AL Division Series: Indians def. Yankees, Red Sox def. Astros
NL Division Series: Diamondbacks def. Dodgers, Cubs def. Nationals
AL Championship Series: Indians def. Red Sox
NL Championship Series: Cubs def. Diamondbacks
World Series: Indians def. Cubs

Chicago Cubs: 2016 Stiles on Sports Sportsmen of the Year

*Editor’s Note:  This post was originally scheduled to be published on December 31, but due to personal sickness was delayed until now. 

 

They endured 108 years as the Lovable Losers, through a billy-goat curse, a black-cat jinx, and a Bartman blunder.  But now, after a World Series and a seventh game for the ages, the Chicago Cubs are, finally, the champions of baseball.

Historic championships always lend themselves to year-end honors, but with the Cubs it is hard to pinpoint one individual face of the franchise to recognize, as players, coaches, executives, and the fans all were an integral part of the storyline of the Cubs triumph.

Thus, the Chicago Cubs are, collectively, the 2016 Stiles on Sports Sportsmen of the Year.

The Cubs, as World Series favorites from start to finish, stormed through the regular season at 103-58, the best season in MLB since 2004.

Leading the NLDS 2-1, the Cubs ended the Giants run of even-year titles and their 10-game elimination-game win streak when they came from 5-2 down in the ninth inning to win Game 4, pulling the largest ninth-inning comeback in a series clincher in MLB history.

Facing a 2-1 NLCS deficit against the Dodgers, they dominated the next three games by scores of 10-2, 8-4, and 5-0, cruising to their first World Series appearance since 1945, clinching the pennant in front of a raucous home crowd at Wrigley Field.

In the Fall Classic, the Cubs met the Cleveland Indians, who had a 68-year title drought of their own and took a 3-1 series lead, putting the Cubs’ backs against the wall.  The Cubs won 3-2 in Game 5, the last game of the series in Chicago, but still needed to win the final two games on the road to win the series, something that had not been done in a World Series since 1979.  A 9-3 Cubs win in Game 6, led by an Addison Russell grand slam, set up a monumental Game 7.

It took an 8-7, 10-inning instant classic for the Cubs to win the World Series–a game that included home runs by Dexter Fowler, Javier Baez and David Ross, three errors and a costly wild pitch, the loss of a four-run lead, some debatable strategy, and regaining the momentum after a rain delay to score in the 10th on a Ben Zobrist double, before two young, relatively unknown pitchers got the final three outs.

When Michael Martinez grounded into the final out, Wrigleyville could finally erupt in celebration of a world champion, feeling both the thrill of victory and the relief of a weight lifted that had been bogging them down for over a century.

The final out was, in baseball scoring terms, a 5-3 putout, from third baseman Kris Bryant to first baseman Anthony Rizzo, a play that may be the most appropriate way for this team to clinch its championship.  Bryant and Rizzo, whose names have often been shortened and combined into the nickname “Bryzzo,” are the two young offensive stars of the Cubs franchise.

Bryant, the NL MVP, hit .292 with 39 home runs and 102 RBI, while Rizzo hit for an identical average with 32 home runs and 109 RBI.  Both are affable, young (Bryant is 24, Rizzo is 27), jovial stars who were beloved in Chicago quickly upon their arrivals, and now are practical immortals in the Windy City.  These two will be favorites in Chicago forever, but will be still team leaders for the North Siders over the coming years, a period that could include additional world championships.

But to focus on Bryant and Rizzo is to ignore the fantastic pitching the Cubs used all year.  Jake Arrieta had a fine season in defense of his 2015 NL Cy Young Award, yet was essentially the team’s third best pitcher behind veteran Jon Lester and breakout star Kyle Hendricks.

Lester, the NL Cy Young runner-up and NLCS MVP, went 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA, leading the team with 202.2 innings pitched and 197 strikeouts, and pitched the opener of each postseason series, as well as pivotal Game 5’s in both the NLCS and World Series, and three innings of relief in Game 7 of the World Series.  Hendricks, a 26-year old in just his second full season, was 16-8 and led baseball with a 2.13 ERA, finishing third in NL Cy Young voting and earning the win in the Cubs’ NLCS clincher, allowing just two runs over his final four postseason starts.

Behind every good pitching staff is also good catching, and while David Ross played the least of the Cubs’ three main catchers, he was one of the team’s biggest leaders.  The 39-year old in his 15th MLB season announced at the beginning of the year he would retire at season’s end, and “Grandpa Rossy” was given a farewell tour usually not seen for a role player such as a backup catcher.  But it was for good reason; his veteran leadership by example and positive attitude rubbed off on his teammates, aiding in their success.  Ross, who was Lester’s personal catcher, homered in Game 7 of the World Series–the final at-bat of his career–and was 2-for-5 overall in the World Series.

Many others from the top to the bottom of the Cubs roster had similar contribution.  Ben Zobrist, the son of a preacher who grew up two hours southwest of Chicago but as a fan of the rival Cardinals, earned the game-winning hit in Game 7 of the World Series, and earned series MVP honors after hitting .357 and slugging .500 in the series.

Kyle Schwarber, one of the best young players in baseball who had five home runs in the 2015 postseason, was thought to be lost for the season after suffering a torn ACL on April 7 in the third game of the season.  But Schwarber progressed rapidly through rehab, and after six months was cleared to resume baseball activities.  After just six at-bats in the developmental Arizona Fall League (in which he only got one hit), the Cubs and Schwarber agreed he was ready to play DH in the World Series.  In 17 at-bats in the World Series–his first against major league pitching in 201 days–Schwarber got seven hits (.412), with two RBI, three walks, and even a stolen base in Game 7.

The delivery of the immortality-inducing final out of the historic World Series came not from a big star, but from little-known Mike Montgomery.  The 26-year old southpaw in his second major league season was acquired on July 20 from Seattle, and projects long-term as a starting pitcher, but spent the last half of the season in the Cubs bullpen, pitching strong to a 2.82 ERA.  After struggling in the NLCS, Montgomery recovered to pitch 4.2 innings with one run allowed in the World Series.

With closer Aroldis Chapman expended in Game 7, and Carl Edwards struggling in the tenth, Montgomery came in with two outs and the potential tying run on base.  It only took two pitches for Montgomery to retire Michael Martinez and earn his first professional save at any level–a save that culminated an incredible game and clinched a championship 108 years in the making.

Even the Cub who may have struggled the most on the field throughout the season and the postseason made his own contribution to the North Siders’ title.  Jason Heyward, who signed an eight-year, $184 million deal with the team before the season, hit for just a .230 average in the regular season with 49 RBI and a career-low seven home runs, although he did contribute his usual stellar defense, winning his fourth career Gold Glove.  Heyward hit just .104 in the postseason with one RBI in 48 at-bats.

Yet it was Heyward, and not one of the multiple MVP-caliber players on the Cubs roster, who called a team meeting during the rain delay of Game 7.  The Cubs had led 5-1 before Cleveland had come back to tie the game at 6-6, and the skies had opened up just as extra innings were set to begin.

“I just had to remind everybody who we are, who these guys are, what we’ve overcome to get here,” Heyward told FOX Sports after the game.  “The beginning of every day, we didn’t worry about win or loss.  We’re just worried about how we’re going to go out there and have fun, compete, be right there for the guys next to us, and not take the situation for granted.  I just had to remind them of that, and I’m proud of these guys.”

Going out there and having fun is something the Cubs do well, thanks in large part to manager Joe Maddon.  To say Maddon’s teams in both Tampa Bay (2006-14) and Chicago (2015-present) have always been loose would be an understatement.

Maddon is the quintessential “players manager,” with a style that lets players be themselves and do whatever they wish, so long as they show up on time and perform on the field.  As a result, his players perform well more often.  Maddon always seemed to overachieve with young, upstart rosters in Tampa Bay, so once he had a championship-caliber roster with the Cubs, he delivered, likely sealing a future trip to Cooperstown.

Maddon was hired by the front office team of Theo Epstein and Jed Hoyer.  Both Epstein, the Cubs president of baseball operations, and Hoyer, the general manager, now have a reputation as curse-breakers, after the pair were the top two in the front office in Boston when the Red Sox ended their 86-year drought in 2004, then ended an even longer one in Chicago.  Ending long-standing droughts for two of the most renowned franchises in baseball is remarkable, but it’s even more extraordinary when you consider that Epstein, the face of the front office, and Hoyer, a behind-the-scenes administrator, both just turned 43 in December.

The pair of Epstein and Hoyer were brought to Chicago for the sole purpose of ending “The Curse of the Billy Goat” by owner Tom Ricketts.  Ricketts, an investment banking executive, bought the Cubs franchise in 2009, and has now delivered on his vow to bring a championship to the Cubs and their fans.  This promise was important to Ricketts and his family, as Ricketts became a Cubs fan while attending the University of Chicago, met his wife in the Wrigley Field bleachers, and even once lived in an apartment at the “Sports Corner” of Addison and Sheffield, across the street from The Friendly Confines.

A Cubs fan leading the team to the title is only fitting, as this was truly the fans’ title.  No member of the Cubs roster has been with the team longer than six seasons, yet these loyal, dedicated, and overwhelmingly patient fans have been with the team for, in many cases, decades.  Entire lifetimes have been spent waiting for one moment, which finally came in the form of a slow grounder to third at 11:46 p.m. central time on November 2, 2016.

It was these fans who celebrated night and day in Wrigleyville and throughout Chicago after the title.  On November 4, two days after Game 7, an estimated five million people packed the route for the Cubs victory celebration, making it the seventh-largest gathering in human history, joining a list of most-attended events mainly reserved for religious pilgrimages and funerals of world leaders.

The event featured a parade from Wrigley Field down Michigan Avenue, culminating with a victory rally at Grant Park.  This “only when pigs fly” event occurred eight years to the day after another such event at Grant Park:  the victory speech of a black man, Barack Obama, elected as President of the United States.

But the impact was felt beyond just the coast of Lake Michigan, but from coast to coast of the United States.  The Cubs have a nationwide fanbase, thanks in large part to the many years their games were broadcast on WGN, and fans across the country celebrated.  It was the first title in the lifetime of nearly all of the Cubs’ numerous fans, with two known exceptions:  108-year-olds Mabel Ball of Illinois, who passed away just days after her Cubs win the World Series, and Hazel Nilson of New Hampshire.

Members of every World Series-winning team make appearances around the talk show circuit over the following days, but the Cubs collectively fulfilled more obligations than usual, with everything from Ellen to Saturday Night Live, where Rizzo, Ross and Fowler appeared with lifelong Cubs fan and former cast member Bill Murray in a barber shop quartet-style rendition of Steve Goodman’s “Go Cubs Go,” a team anthem that is played at Wrigley Field after victories and was heard throughout the country in the days following the World Series.

After 108 years of waiting, the Cubs and their fans got to celebrate.  A Cubs World Series title is one of the sports stories of a lifetime, and honoring one of these individuals or even the fans as the face of the triumph would be unfair to everyone else who participated in a historic championship run.  So after their phenomenal run to history, the Cubs are communally the Sportsmen of the Year.

Column: Game 7 WAS the Game of the Century

I called it the biggest baseball game of the century to date.

I told myself that with that much buildup and hype, it would be difficult for the game to live up to that lofty title, even with the guarantee of one championship drought coming to an end.

But after the Chicago Cubs outlasted the Cleveland Indians in 10 innings to win their first championship in 108 years, Game 7 of the 112th World Series didn’t just live up to the hype–it surpassed it, unquestionably becoming greatest baseball game played in this century, and arguably the greatest of all-time.

Even before first pitch the game had a plethora of storylines.  The 37th winner-take-all World Series game in history, between franchises looking for their first titles since 1908 and 1948.  The Cubs trying to complete a Series comeback after trailing 3-1 in the best-of-seven contest.  A 103-win Cubs team having to play Game 7 on the road because the American League won the All-Star Game.

Cy Young Award contenders from each league, Kyle Hendricks and Corey Kluber, facing off head-to-head for all the marbles.  A managerial battle between Joe Maddon and Terry Francona.  The Cubs exceptional young core of position players and the equally exceptional Indians bullpen.

Game 7 had all this, and more.  Really, it had a little bit of everything.  Things that were expected to happen never unfolded, and things no one expected did occur.  One game contained innumerable moments that will live in the lore of the World Series much longer than 108 years from now.

Dexter Fowler’s leadoff homer.  Kyle Schwarber’s steal in the first.  Kris Bryant sliding between the legs of catcher Roberto Perez to score.  Javier Baez’s homer.  The Cubs stunning Kluber to take a 5-1 lead.  Three Cubs errors.  Hendricks dealing, then being pulled for Jon Lester.  Two Indians scoring on a wild pitch (the first time two scored on a wild pitch in a World Series game since 1911).  David Ross homering in his final career at-bat, becoming the oldest to homer in a World Series Game 7.  Rajai Davis’s unlikely home run in the 8th, the latest game-tying homer in any Game 7 in history.  Aroldis Chapman, running on fumes, somehow getting the Indians in order in the 9th.  Extra innings.

A rain delay.  Schwarber’s leadoff walk in the 10th.  Pinch-runner Albert Almora tagging to second on a flyout.  Zobrist’s go-ahead double in the 10th.  He and Montero earning RBIs after the previous batters were intentionally walked.  Rookie Carl Edwards getting the first two outs in the 10th.  Davis making it 8-7 with an RBI single.  Mike Montgomery, of all people, throwing all of two pitches and getting the final out, his first professional save at any level.  Kris Bryant grinning ear-to-ear as he fielded the grounder to win it all.

It was a paradoxical game with both an abundance of clutch hitting and its share of solid pitching.  Both managers made some tough–and controversial–decisions, and while he ended up on the losing end, Francona appeared to outmanage Maddon.

Both sides experienced a roller-coaster ride of emotions:  joy, frustration, hope, despair, and eventually triumph and heartbreak in the respective dugouts when the classic culminated.

The final result is what many veterans of the sports media world have called the greatest story they have ever covered–the Cubs winning the World Series for the first time since 1908.

The first time in 39,466 days.  The first time since Theodore Roosevelt was President of the United States–all 45 of them–and William Howard Taft and William Jennings Bryan were running to replace him.  The first time since two weeks after Ford began producing the Model T.  The first time since the year Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Stewart were born and Grover Cleveland died.  The first time since 19 years before any of my grandparents were born.

Not only did Game 7 mark the first time a Cubs World Series victory was broadcast on television, but the first time it was broadcast, period, as the World Series was not broadcast on radio until 1921, and commercial radio broadcasting in general did not begin until the 1920’s.

The broadcast of Game 7 will endure for ages, as it joins the list of the greatest games in World Series history and, given the circumstances, may eclipse them all as the greatest baseball game of all-time.

The Cubs and their fans have literally waited a lifetime to celebrate winning the World Series.

It’s only appropriate that the game of a lifetime put them over the top.

 

 

 

112th World Series

Game 1:  Cleveland 6, Chicago 0
W: Kluber, L: Lester
Cleveland leads 1-0

Game 2:  Chicago 5, Cleveland 1
W: Arrieta, L: Bauer
Series tied 1-1

Game 3:  Cleveland 1, Chicago 0
W: Miller, L: Edwards, S: Allen
Cleveland leads 2-1

Game 4:  Cleveland 7, Chicago 2
W: Kluber, L: Lackey
Cleveland leads 3-1

Game 5:  Chicago 3, Cleveland 2
W: Lester, L: Bauer, S: Chapman
Cleveland leads 3-2

Game 6:  Chicago 9, Cleveland 3
W: Arrieta, L: Tomlin
Series tied 3-3

Game 7:  Chicago 8, Cleveland 7, 10 innings
W: Chapman, L: Shaw, S: Montgomery
Chicago wins 4-3

 

Column: The Game of the Century

Tonight the Cleveland Indians will host the Chicago Cubs in Game 7 of the World Series, the 37th winner-take-all game in World Series history.

But as big as the game is on the surface, when you look at the storylines and subplots accompanying the Indians and Cubs into Game 7, this game becomes possibly–and I don’t think I’m overstating this–the biggest baseball game of this century to date.

Both teams have long-standing championship droughts, with the Cubs lacking a title since 1908, and the Indians last crown coming in 1948.  One of those historic and well-documented droughts will end in the rain of confetti about three hours after tonight’s 8:00 ET first pitch.

The Cubs are seeking to become just the sixth team in World Series history to win after trailing the series 3-1, and the first since the 1985 Kansas City Royals.  The North Siders would be the first team to pull off such a comeback with the last two games on the road since the 1968 Detroit Tigers.

Both starting pitchers are contenders for this year’s Cy Young Award in their respective league.  Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13 ERA), the NL ERA leader in the regular season with the Cubs, has a 1.31 postseason ERA, and no runs allowed in his last two starts.  Corey Kluber, who won Games 1 and 4 for Cleveland, won the AL Cy Young in 2014 and could win it again (18-9, 3.14 ERA).  Kluber has a staggering 0.89 ERA in five postseason starts, and is trying to become the first pitcher since Mickey Lolich in 1968 to start and win three games in a World Series.  Cleveland also has bullpen stalwarts Andrew Miller and Cody Allen rested and ready for potentially extended action tonight.

The Cubs explosive offense struck for nine runs in Game 6 last night, as Addison Russell became the fourth player with a 6-RBI game in the World Series (the first on a team facing elimination), and the second youngest player to hit a World Series grand slam (behind only Mickey Mantle).  Each of the three-through-six hitters in the Cubs order (Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Ben Zobrist, Russell) had multiple hits.

The Indians offense has only scored 3.3 runs per game in the Series, but has a six- and seven-run game to their credit.  Last night, Jason Kipnis (3-for-5) was the only player with multiple hits, but Francisco Lindor has been solid the entire series (8-for-22, 2 RBI).

Managers Joe Maddon (Cubs) and Terry Francona (Indians) have both made some bold strategical moves in the series, as both are among the best tacticians in the game.  Francona won two World Series titles with the Red Sox (2004, ’07), and is a sure-fire future Hall of Famer, while Maddon could be headed for Cooperstown as well.  This is Francona’s first World Series Game 7 in any capacity, while Maddon participated in Game 7 as bench coach for the 2002 Angels, who beat the Giants.

The pair are familiar with each other from their time managing in the AL East, with Maddon in Tampa Bay (2006-14) and Francona in Boston (2004-11).  They have also faced off twice in winner-take-all games:  in the 2008 ALCS, the Red Sox trailed 3-1 and forced Game 7 before Maddon’s Rays won the pennant, and in the 2013 AL Wild Card Game, the Rays beat the Indians, in their first year under Francona.

While tonight’s game–the 178th of the season for the Cubs and the 176th for the Indians–is the third Game 7 of a World Series in the last six seasons, it is just the fifth in this century (2001, 2002, 2011, 2014).

Game 7’s have produced some of the great moments in baseball history, from Bill Mazeroski’s homer in 1960, to the Morris-Smoltz pitcher’s duel in 1991, to Luis Gonzalez’s bloop single to win in 2001, to Madison Bumgarner’s five-inning save in 2014.

Whoever wins tonight, it will be a historic game for baseball, as a drought of either 39,466 or 24,859 days will come to an end.

And if the biggest game of the century is half as good as the hype it is getting, we are all in for a treat.

 

 

112th World Series

Game 1:  Cleveland 6, Chicago 0
W: Kluber, L: Lester
Cleveland leads 1-0

Game 2:  Chicago 5, Cleveland 1
W: Arrieta, L: Bauer
Series tied 1-1

Game 3:  Cleveland 1, Chicago 0
W: Miller, L: Edwards, S: Allen
Cleveland leads 2-1

Game 4:  Cleveland 7, Chicago 2
W: Kluber, L: Lackey
Cleveland leads 3-1

Game 5:  Chicago 3, Cleveland 2
W: Lester, L: Bauer, S: Chapman
Cleveland leads 3-2

Game 6:  Chicago 9, Cleveland 3
W: Arrieta, L: Tomlin
Series tied 3-3

Game 7:  Tonight, 8:00 pm ET, FOX

 

2016 World Series Preview: The Series to End All Droughts

Someone will win the World Series this year that hasn’t won it in a very long time.

If you are 68 or younger, whichever team wins the World Series in the next week will do so for the first time in your lifetime.

The unique 112th edition of the World Series matches the two franchises with the longest championship droughts in MLB, and two of the three longest in major North American professional sports (along with the Arizona Cardinals).  The Cleveland Indians are seeking their first title since 1948, in their first Fall Classic appearance since 1997, while the Chicago Cubs have waited even longer, as they seek their first championship since 1908, after winning their first pennant since 1945.  This series will set a record for the longest combined championship drought (176 years), breaking the previous record, which also involved a Chicago team (the 2005 White Sox and Astros), by 44 years.

The Cubs reached the World Series by defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS, winning three straight to overcome a 2-1 series deficit and win in six games.  The Cubs previously defeated the San Francisco Giants in the best-of-five NLDS, 3-1.

As strong as the Cubs have played, the Indians have been even more impressive on their way to the AL Pennant.  After sweeping the Boston Red Sox in the ALDS, the Tribe took a 3-0 series lead against the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS before winning in five games.

Here is a look at how the two teams match up:

Pitching

Two the best pitching staffs in baseball are meeting in the World Series, as it should be.

The Cubs led MLB with a 3.15 team ERA in the regular season, and have been even better in the postseason, with a 2.93 mark, and a 2.89 clip in the NLCS.

The Cubs rotation features two of the three top contenders for the NL Cy Young Award in Game 1 starter Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44 ERA, NLCS co-MVP) and Game 3 starter Kyle Hendricks (16-8, 2.13 ERA [led NL], winner of NLCS Game 6), as well as 2015 NL Cy Young winner Jake Arrieta (18-8, 3.10 ERA), who will start Game 2, and postseason veteran and Game 4 starter John Lackey (11-8, 3.35 ERA).  In the event of a seven-game series, it is likely that Lester, Arrieta, and Hendricks would pitch games five through seven, respectively.

The Cubs relief corps has a respectable 3.56 ERA, led by closer Aroldis Chapman (36/39 saves, 1.55 ERA), while supplemental bullpen arms Carl Edwards (0.00 ERA in 3.2 postseason IP) and Travis Wood (1.93 ERA in 4.2 postseason IP) have both been solid in the playoffs.

In the meantime, the Indians bullpen (3.45 ERA in regular season, 1.67 in postseason)  has been unfathomably good throughout the postseason thus far.  The unit is anchored by ALCS MVP Andrew Miller (0.00 ERA in 11.2 postseason IP), who has acted as a sort of utility reliever, coming into various situations when manager Terry Francona called upon him.  Closer Cody Allen (0.00 ERA in 5.2 postseason IP, five postseason saves) has also been strong.

That bullpen is what has carried Cleveland, as their rotation (4.08 ERA in regular season) has had its share of attrition issues.  Corey Kluber (18-9, 3.14 ERA) is a legitimate ace who may win his second AL Cy Young Award this year, but beyond him the Indians struggle to match up against the strong Cubs rotation.  Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26 ERA), who only lasted 0.2 innings in his Game 3 ALCS start because of a vicious cut finger, will start Game 2, and Josh Tomlin (13-9, 4.40 ERA) Game 3.

A wild card for the Tribe is Danny Salazar, who hasn’t pitched since September 9 due to a forearm injury, but is on the roster and may start Game 4 (or Game 5 if they bring Kluber back on short rest), while rookie Ryan Merritt (4.1 scoreless innings in ALCS Game 5) is the other likely option.

The Indians have collectively pitched to a 1.77 postseason ERA, after a commendable 3.84 mark in the regular season.

Offense

The Cubs potent offense was second in the NL in runs (808), fifth in homers (199), first in OBP (.343), and second in OPS (.772).  The Indians, by comparison, were second in the AL in runs (777), second in doubles (308), third in batting average (.262), and first in steals (134).

Anthony Rizzo (.292 BA, 32 HR, 109 RBI) and Kris Bryant (.292 BA, 39 HR, 102 RBI) led the Cubs offense all year, and after Rizzo had a slow start to the NLCS, he still ended the series with good numbers (.320 BA, 2 HR, 5 RBI), as did series MVP Javier Baez (.318 BA, 5 RBI, 2 SB).  The postseason has seen struggles from and Jason Heyward (.071 BA in postseason), although he is not in the Cubs’ Game 1 lineup, replaced in right field by Chris Coghlan (.252 BA, 16 RBI in 48 games).

Like the Indians with Salazar, the Cubs have their own wild card–Kyle Schwarber.  Schwarber, who hit five home runs for the Cubs in nine playoff games in 2015, tore two knee ligaments on April 7th and has not played a major league game since.  He was cleared by doctors on October 17th to hit and run, although he will not play the field, serving as DH for the games in Cleveland and a pinch-hitting option for the games at Wrigley Field.

Cubs manager Joe Maddon is not holding Schwarber back, inserting him as the 5-spot hitter in the Game 1 lineup, even though Schwarber was 1-for-6 with a walk in the two Arizona Fall League games that served as his de facto rehab assignment.  Whether Schwarber can hit MLB pitching–and World Series-caliber pitching at that–could be a big key for the Cubs in this series.

The Indians lineup is led by Mike Napoli (.239 BA, 34 HR, 101 RBI), Carlos Santana (.259 BA, 34 HR, 87 RBI), and young-gun Francisco Lindor (.301 BA, 15 HR, 78 RBI).  Jason Kipnis (.275 BA, 23 HR, 82 RBI) is another one of the team’s offensive leaders, although his bat was cold in the ALCS (.053 BA in series, 1 HR).  Lindor has performed well in the playoffs (.345 BA, 2 HR, 4 RBI), as has Lonnie Chisenhall (.269 BA, 1 HR, 4 RBI).

Other Factors

Both managers in this series have had excellent careers, and are two of the absolute best in the business.  Indians manager Terry Francona helped end the Red Sox 86-year curse in 2004, and won another title there in 2007, making this his third World Series appearance.  Francona took over the Indians in 2013.

Cubs skipper Joe Maddon took the Tampa Bay Rays to the 2008 World Series, losing to the Phillies, and was always known for getting the most of his players in Tampa.  That still holds true in Chicago, although he now has a much more talented roster than any Rays team he managed.  Maddon took over the Cubs before the 2015 season.

These two managers have combined for four Manager of the Year awards (Maddon 3, Francona 1), and become the 16th and 17th managers in major league history to take multiple franchises to the World Series.

The Indians have home-field advantage in the Series (all because a Giant gave up a homer to a Royal in an “exhibition game” on July 12, but I digress).  With both fan bases so hungry for a championship, each and every game should be an incredible atmosphere, as it should be in the Fall Classic.

That said, with a team trying to end a drought involved in a World Series, I might would say that hungry team and that fan base could get some small advantage as a result.  But in this series, with respective title droughts of 68 and 108 years, there is no such advantage.

For what it’s worth, looking at my “Trends of a World Champion” categories, the Cubs have an advantage in five of them, while the Indians do in four, and one is a tie.

Prediction

The Cubs offense has produced better in the playoffs (4.8 runs per game, and 3.4 runs per game for Cleveland), and while the Indians battered rotation would be sufficient to get through a regular season, they are not up to the Cubs standard, while the Indians bullpen, even as good as they are, is unlikely to stay so incredibly hot for between four and seven more games.

The Cubs will win the series, 4-2.

 

World Series Schedule (all games on FOX, at 8:08 pm ET unless otherwise noted)
Game 1:  Tuesday, October 25

Game 2:  Wednesday, October 26
Game 3:  Friday, October 28
Game 4:  Saturday, October 29
Game 5:  Sunday, October 30, 8:15 pm ET (if necessary)
Game 6:  Tuesday, November 1 (if necessary)
Game 7:  Wednesday, November 2 (if necessary)

Column: The Last Time the Cubs Were In the World Series

Saturday night, the Chicago Cubs advanced to the World Series for the first time since 1945, defeating the Los Angeles Dodgers 5-0 to win the National League Championship Series in six games to meet the Cleveland Indians in the Fall Classic, starting Tuesday.

In that 1945 World Series, the Cubs met the Detroit Tigers.  It was the Cubs 10th World Series appearance in the first 42 editions of the World Series, although the North-Siders had only won in two of their previous appearances (1907-08), and would end up losing to the Tigers in seven games.

When that World Series was contested, Harry S. Truman had just become president six months earlier after the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt.  Between then and the World Series that October, Truman had already overseen the end of World War II, winning in Europe 25 days after Roosevelt’s death, and in Japan in August.

(Outspoken Cub fan Steve Goodman, known for writing “Go Cubs Go,” pointed out that parallel history in a lyric in his song “The Dying Cub Fan’s Last Request,” saying “You know the law of averages says anything will happen that can, but the last time the Cubs won a National League pennant was the year we dropped the bomb on Japan.”)

In the month before the 1945 World Series, Ho Chi Minh established the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, and American military occupation of Korea began, with both events setting the stage for major conflicts over the coming years.

The average house cost $4,600 in 1945, and a gallon of gas costs 15 cents.  The Bells of St. Mary’s starring Bing Crosby was the top-grossing film of the year, and Crosby won the Best Actor Oscar for his role in Going My Way, which won the Oscar for Best Picture.  Animal Farm and Stuart Little were among the novels published in 1945.

Microwave ovens and cruise control were invented in 1945, and less than 10,000 homes had television sets, while the credit card, defibrillator, and hair spray were all invented over the next three years.

Don McLean was born the day before the World Series, while fellow entertainers Tom Selleck, Bob Marley, Eric Clapton, Bob Seger, John Fogerty, Steve Martin, Neil Young, and Bette Midler and journalists Chris Matthews and Diane Sawyer were all also born in 1945.  Sports figures Pat Riley, Walt Frazier, Gary Williams, Hale Irwin, Phil Jackson, Jim Palmer, and Larry Bowa were also born in 1945, and Hall of Famer Rod Carew was born two days before the World Series.

Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton would not be born for another year and two years, respectively.  My grandparents were between 9 and 18 years old.

World War II resulted in the deaths of Adolf Hitler, Benito Mussolini, and Anne Frank in 1945, while general George Patton died shortly after the war’s conclusion.

As the 1945 World Series was played, no black players were on either team, as Jackie Robinson would not break baseball’s color barrier for another two years.  The first Cubs player to appear in the 2016 World Series opener on Tuesday in Cleveland will likely be African-American outfielder Dexter Fowler, the Cubs usual leadoff hitter.

The years 1945 and 2016 are quite different, as society, culture, and even the timeless game of baseball have all seen big changes.  But in 1945 and 2016, one thing is the same:  The Chicago Cubs are National League champions.

The curse of the billy-goat, the black cat, and the Bartman game have blocked potential World Series appearances for the Cubs, but now, finally, 71 years later, the Cubs are back in the World Series.

It’s been a long time coming.

 

 

World Series Schedule (all games on FOX, at 8:08 pm ET unless otherwise noted)
Game 1:  Tuesday, October 25

Game 2:  Wednesday, October 26
Game 3:  Friday, October 28
Game 4:  Saturday, October 29
Game 5:  Sunday, October 30, 8:15 pm ET (if necessary)
Game 6:  Tuesday, November 1 (if necessary)
Game 7:  Wednesday, November 2 (if necessary)